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新退欧协议可能性降低

作者:凯石 | 2019-09-30 13:46

摘要: 北京时间周五(9月27日),英国央行委员桑德斯表示,即使能达成脱欧协议,英国可能仍需要降息,英国央行需要在政策调整方面有敏感性。

Saunders said that the uncertainty of Brexit led to slow economic growth. If global economic growth continues to be disappointing, long-term UK Brexit uncertainty may lead to more accommodative policies, and the risks facing the global economy tend to be negative. The economy has clearly softened and released a small amount of idle capacity. If the global economy recovers and the uncertainty of Brexit drops significantly, it will require a gradual and limited rate hike. If the Brexit results change, the cost of policy adjustment may be quite low. After the agreement, the interest rate may tilt to either side, depending on exchange rate and economic growth.
桑德斯称,英国脱欧的不确定性导致经济增长缓慢,如果全球经济增长继续令人失望,长期的英国脱欧不确定性可能导致更宽松的政策,全球经济面临的风险偏向负面,英国经济已经明显趋软,释放出少量闲置产能,如果全球经济复苏、英国脱欧不确定性显著下降,就需要渐进有限的加息。如果英国脱欧结果发生改变,政策方向调整的成本可能相当低 ,无协议脱欧后,利率可能会向任何一方倾斜,这取决于汇率和经济增长。
外汇代理
Sanders also said that the UK interest rate floor is close to zero, slightly above zero. Negative interest rates will lead to a weakening of the banking system and bring risks to financial stability. I do not support negative interest rates. Once interest rates are at the lower limit, the policy loosening tool is For further asset purchases, the UK economy will be at its best level in decades without the uncertainty of Brexit. The bottom line of the central bank's interest rate is close to but above zero. Below the potential growth rate is enough to justify a rate cut and no further slowdown is needed. The company's current preventive inventory construction is much less than before the initial Brexit deadline.
桑德斯还称,英国利率下限接近于零,略高于零,负利率会导致银行体系走弱,并给金融稳定带来风险,本人并不支持负利率,一旦利率处于下限,政策宽松的工具是进一步的资产购买,如果没有英国脱欧的不确定性,英国经济将处于数十年来最好的水平。央行利率底线是接近但高于零,低于潜在增长率就足以证明有理由降息,不需要进一步放缓。企业现在的预防性库存建设比最初英国脱欧截止日期之前要少得多。

Sanders’ dovish remarks suggest that the British authorities have failed to reach a Brexit agreement. Downing Street said that the Brexit negotiations "has made progress", but there are still "major obstacles" in reaching an agreement; the British Brexit Minister Barclays will travel to Brussels later, and the European continent is now able to reach a new The European agreement is increasingly pessimistic; EU chief negotiator Barnier told diplomats on Thursday that the proposed alternative to Irish guarantees would not work; European diplomats believe that the crucial EU summit will be held on October 17. The possibility of finalizing a new Brexit agreement is "declining."
桑德斯的鸽派言论暗示已经认定英国当局无法达成脱欧协议。唐宁街表示,英国脱欧谈判“已经取得了进展”,但达成协议仍存在“重大障碍”;英国脱欧大臣巴克莱晚些时候将前往布鲁塞尔,目前欧洲大陆对能否达成一项新的脱欧协议日益感到悲观;欧盟首席谈判代表巴尼耶周四对外交官们表示,英国提出的替代爱尔兰担保的方案行不通;欧洲外交官认为,在10月17日举行的至关重要的欧盟峰会上,敲定一项新退欧协议的可能性正在“下降。”
 
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