摘要: The interest rate cut and purchase of bonds, the European Central Bank recently issued a new round of ultra-loose monetary policy, with the intention of injecting a "cardiotonic agent" into the sluggish euro zone economy, but it is difficult
The interest rate cut and purchase of bonds, the European Central Bank recently issued a new round of ultra-loose monetary policy, with the intention of injecting a "cardiotonic agent" into the sluggish euro zone economy, but it is difficult to support the project, and the results are difficult to anticipate.
The European Central Bank once again cut the key interest rate after three and a half years, so that the euro zone will sink deeper and deeper in the negative interest rate quagmire, and restart the asset purchase plan after 8 months, so that quantitative easing will return. From the expected results, the combination of the two, coupled with forward-looking guidance, long-term refinancing operations, etc., is expected to provide more liquidity to the euro zone, further reduce financing costs and promote household borrowing. However, the crux of the current Eurozone economy is not the lack of liquidity, nor the financing costs of enterprises and individuals, but the downturn in international trade and the shrinking of manufacturing. Therefore, the “water release” prescriptions issued by the European Central Bank can only temporarily relieve pain, and helplessly eliminate the ills.
The European Commission believes that the global manufacturing cycle has not yet bottomed out, and trade and investment prospects continue to be affected by protectionism and uncertainty. Although the job market is still a “bright spot” in the Eurozone economy, weak external demand and manufacturing may spread to the service sector and curb employment growth, which in turn affects household income and private consumption.
Against the background of constant conflicts and unpredictable uncertainties such as the Brexit, the European Central Bank announced that it will cut its forecast for the euro zone's economic growth this year and next, and cut its inflation forecast for 2019-2021. This means that the reality of the euro zone economy is worse than expected, and it seems that there is no light in the short term.
Up to now, the loose monetary policy has been in the euro zone for more than 8 years, of which the debt purchase plan has been carried out for 4 years, almost all kinds of policy tools have been used to the extreme, the marginal benefits are diminishing, and side effects are increased. Some financial institution analysts believe that the European Central Bank has almost no more means to effectively prevent the real economic crisis.
For the “sickness” of the euro zone, the European Central Bank has almost no way to do it, and the low-cost funds provided by its long-term “discharge” have been criticized by critics as consuming the will of member states to promote structural reforms. The lag in economic reform in the euro zone means that you can't “build your body”. Once the risk strikes, it will be difficult to avoid the storm.